冰雪会使您的业务运营陷入停顿。甚至不需要很大的冰雪量,就能中断旅行或成为巨大的安全隐患。

冬季天气的影响并不总是与风暴的规模或强度直接相关。即使是最小量的冰雪,在错误的时间也会成为一场噩梦。

更智能的数据和及时的警报可帮助您的团队避免或减轻复杂的冬季天气事件对运营造成的影响。

 

以下是一些简单的提示,下次天气预报说要下雪或结冰时请记住。

避免代价高昂的过早决策

风暴轨迹的细微变化可能导致预计影响的重大差异。如果过早做出决定,可能会付出高昂的代价。预报模型在风暴来临前几天是一个很好的工具,但也有一些使用限制。

我们都喜欢高分辨率的天气预报。尤其是能够准确预测街道积雪量的预报。男爵拥有一个经过验证的模型,可以做到这一点。然而,知道何时使用它才是关键。

Given the finicky nature of winter weather, pinpoint accuracy on precipitation type and amounts are best reserved for 48 to 72 hours in advance. Longer-range global models are certainly credible for identifying potential trouble spots several days in advance. Preparation for an event can undoubtedly begin more than 48 hours in advance, but the detailed decisions are best left to expert analysis of models on a shorter time scale and at higher resolutions.

使用更智能的数据做出艰难决策

冬季暴风雪期间会降下三种类型的冰冻降水:雨夹雪、冻雨和雪。每种降水都会带来不同类型的危害,需要制定相应的计划。要知道哪种降水会首先降下,是否或何时会过渡到另一种降水,以及每种降水的预计降水量,这些都是需要更智能的数据才能回答的关键问题。

Snow is ice crystals that grow while suspended in the atmosphere and fall frozen to the ground. It is usually plowable, but intense snowfall rates or blowing and drifting can make previously cleared roads snow-covered again.

雨夹雪

Sleet is snowflakes or ice crystals that encounter a thin layer of warm air aloft, temporarily melting them into raindrops. The raindrops then have enough time in subfreezing temperatures to freeze again into ice pellets before hitting the ground. The rapid onset of sleet can cause road surfaces to ice over very quickly and, when mixed with snow, compact into a slushy mess that is difficult to clear.

冻雨

Freezing Rain is like rain, except it falls into a shallow layer of subfreezing air near the ground and freezes on contact. Road surfaces, trees, cars, and powerlines can become coated in a thin layer of ice that is difficult to remove. When freezing rain is mixed with other winter precipitation types and followed by several hours of subfreezing temperatures, cleanup is complicated by the sheets of heavy crusty ice mixed in with sleet or snow accumulations.

 

The most difficult decision is where and when to make the call that air travel or ground transportation becomes unsafe for operations. A similar decision is also necessary when considering employees if they commute to work.

冬季风暴期间的预报地图可能色彩斑斓,对特定地点或路线的解读也很复杂。将各种降水类型隔离在一张地图上会有所帮助,尤其是当您需要同时查看一个地区或多个地点时。

巴隆模式中的冬季天气降水类型

查看相同数据的另一种方法是绘制气象图,气象图是气象参数随时间变化的图表的别称。这对于评估一个地点在暴风雨期间的各种风险特别有用。

冬季降水量最大的地区通常降水范围很窄,因此即使风暴路径稍有变化,冰雪总量也会出现很大差异。即使是最好的预报模式,也不能简单地依赖一次运行。关键是要时刻保持警惕,以便在天气开始变化时捕捉到这些微妙的变化。

跟上多变的路况

在计划对交通的影响时,从天而降的冰冻降水并不是您需要考虑的全部。大风、低温和原有道路状况都必须纳入应对计划。

例如,大风会造成比预计积雪高出几英尺的雪堆。冰雪天气期间或紧随其后的低温会使道路施工人员或飞机除冰人员难以有效作业。相反,如果路面温度预计将保持在零度以上,冰雪天气在某些地区可能非常容易通行。

Baron scientists have created a dataset that shows current and projected winter road conditions in simple-to-understand levels: wet, icy, snowy, and heavy snow. The interactive map below allows you to view the data in real time.

实时天气预览

The Baron Road Conditions dataset also uses current and projected soil temperatures to provide clarity on whether winter precipitation will impact road surfaces and how long they may remain icy or snowy following an event.

考虑的不仅仅是科学

准备和应对冬季天气对人类的影响需要的不仅仅是科学的预测。重要的是要考虑预先存在的条件,如典型的交通流量、事件是否会在节假日前后发生,或所针对的地理区域是否习惯于冬季天气。

For example, an inch of snow in a southern state such as Louisiana or Mississippi could be more challenging to traverse than if it fell in Michigan due to a lack of resources or inexperience on the roadways. Another example is frozen precipitation falling late at night on a weekend, which may accumulate on roads faster due to less traffic (tire friction) than if it fell during a busy weekday afternoon.

因此,聘请一位气象专家对您的模型解释进行补充是一个好主意。选择对您所在地区冬季天气的文化和地理影响有经验的人,以补充数据和模型。

没有两次冬季风暴是相同的。虽然在如何应对风暴方面有相似之处,但每场风暴的路径和强度都是独一无二的,需要战略性的思考和灵活性。做出决定的时机与计划本身同样重要。

我们希望这些建议能提高您的应对效率,让您对何时做出这些困难的决定充满信心。我们已经向您简要介绍了巴隆技术如何使您的组织受益。如果您想我们的专家交流,讨论我们的卓越天气数据如何帮助您做出更好的冬季天气决策,请联系我们。